With only 28% on Columbia the line has shifted from +9 at open to +8.5 and even to +8 in some places. So why do I like Columbia here. Well they did beat Harvard at home in their last two match ups and it's not like Harvard is going to run away with a game in my opinion. Harvard also will be looking ahead to Cornell on Saturday night as they will face the other conference favor in a big time match up in upstate NY.
In Harvard's one road game in conference they won by just 4 points to Dartmouth. Vegas feels that this Columbia team is a bit better than Dartmouth as Columbia was 19 and 12 point dogs against Cornell in their last two games while Dartmouth opened up as 27 point under dogs today against Cornell. So if Dartmouth can keep the game close why can't Columbia?
The difference will be from the perimeter and it's the reason I like this match up the most. Not only does Columbia have the perimeter defense to give the conference sensation Jeremy Lin troubles, but they can score from three as they are the #5 three point offense. At home they are shooting an amazing 46.2% from three.
Harvard also turns the ball over way too much and it's the reason why their opponents are getting nearly 4 more field goal attempts per game as they turn the ball over 17.1 per game on the road while Columbia averages 8.1 steals per game should be able to give this team some issues.
Columbia is 5-1 in their last 6 ATS following a double digit home loss. They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS loss and 7-2 in their last 9 as an under dog 7-12.5pts. Harvard is 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 vs. team with a win% less than .400. Vegas gives them too much credit some times and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite 7-12.5 points. I think Columbia makes a push to win this out right.
